I’ve written several times about the state’s demographic death spiral: the declining birth rate coupled with consistent net outmigration. This trend has continued for years, unchecked.
For some reason, the Minnesota Star Tribune finally noticed the phenomenon over the weekend. The headline,
Reversing Minnesota’s declining birthrate is costly — and controversial
For background, here is the updated (through 2023) data for births in Minnesota,
Using 2014 as the baseline, the declining birth rate in subsequent years translates into more than 34,000 “missing” children over a decade. Just from 2022 to 2023, the birth rate declined by 2,344. Fast forward to 2028, that means 2,344 fewer kindergarteners. Assuming an average kindergarten class size of 21, that means a need for 112 fewer kindergarten teachers, statewide. And that ripples throughout the K-12 system through the next dozen years.
The Star Tribune notices that there will be other effects,
Over time, fewer children will result in fewer workers — from doctors to farmers to bankers to builders. That will mean fewer people making Target runs, buying Vikings tickets and paying taxes to keep up Minnesota’s infrastructure.
Fewer workers, fewer consumers, fewer taxpayers, fewer schoolchildren. The predictable Star Tribune solution arrives in paragraph 32,
[Minnesota’s state demographer Susan] Brower said immigration, nonetheless, remains the most immediate strategy, because a change in cultural attitudes about childbirth can’t be manufactured overnight.
One would think that a population and economic growth strategy based on international immigration would be a nonstarter after tallying the results of last week’s election.
More promising, the state’s now-divided legislature has an excellent opportunity to tackle some of the root causes of population decline: high tax rates, high crime rates, and poor-performing schools.
There’s always hope.