A new Thinking Minnesota poll from the Center of the American Experiment has recently come out that shows affordability is the top issue for Minnesotans, of all political stripes, in the upcoming 2026 state elections. In fact, as per the first graphic below, 87% of total voters consider it a factor, be it a major one of 59% or a minor one of 28%.
Source: Meeting Street Insights
Issues
The poll also shows that energy is a top ten affordability issue, as seen in the second graphic below. “Lowering energy costs” is 8th place with 10%. However, energy is more like 5th place, given it is a sixth of both 4th place “lowering housing costs” of 20%, and at least half, and probably more, of “reducing gas taxes and transportation costs” at 9%.
Source: Meeting Street Insights
Affordability
As can easily be seen in the first chart below, for all Minnesota electricity customers combined (i.e. residential, commercial and industrial), overall affordability has been shockingly bad in the 21st century, especially since 2002, the first year of the state’s transition to renewables. The lowlights from 2002 to 2025 were as follows:
- electricity price inflation of +118.4%;
- electricity use deflation of -14.6%, noting that less use was not efficiency but poverty;
- electricity bill unaffordability of +86.6%.
Source: EIA.gov electricity price (cents/kWh), use (kWh/customer) and bill (dollars/customer)
Index: 100.0 = 2002
Price
The second chart below compares electricity prices of Minnesota to the Midwest and Nation. The Midwest is comprised of: 1.) Illinois; 2.) Indiana; 3.) Iowa; 4.) Michigan; 5.) Minnesota; 6.) Nebraska; 7.) North Dakota; 8.) Ohio; 9.) South Dakota; and 10.) Wisconsin. From 2002 to 2025:
- Minnesota electricity price inflation of 118.4%, 22.2% and 29% worse than the next two;
- Midwest electricity price inflation of 96.2%;
- National electricity price inflation of 89.4%.
Source: EIA.gov eelctricity price (cents/kWh) Index: 100.0 = 2002
Use
The third chart below compares electricity use of Minnesota to the Midwest and Nation. From 2002 to 2025:
- Minnesota electricity use deflation of 14.6%, 8.9% and 9.7% worse than the next two;
- Midwest electricity use deflation of 5.7%;
- National electricity use deflation of 4.9%.
Source: EIA.gov electricity use (kWh/customer) Index: 100.0 = 2002
Bill
The fourth chart below compares electricity bills of Minnesota to the Midwest and Nation. An electricity bill is price times use. It is good when a bill goes down because of price deflation. It is bad when it goes down because of price inflation. The latter happened from 2002 to 2025:
- Minnesota electricity bill unaffordability of 86.6%, only 0.5% and 6.4% worse than the next two, because of higher price inflation inducing greater use deflation;
- Midwest electricity bill unaffordability of 86.1%;
- National electricity bill unaffordability of 80.2%.
Source: EIA.gov electricity bill (dollars/customer) Index: 100.0 = 2002
Proposals
The new affordability poll canvassed voter preferences on five potential policy proposals, as can be viewed in the third graphic below. Three of the five proposals were fiscal policy, that being the 1st, 2nd and 5th placed ones. The other two, the 3rd and 4th, were regulatory policy. Unfortunately, although the 5th called for subsidy removal, the 2nd called for more subsidies.
Source: Meeting Street Insights
Subsidies
Mainstream static economics teaches that taxpayer subsidies, such as to Minnesota renewables, will increase supply and lower prices. It also teaches that rising input costs, say in such renewables, will decrease supply and escalate prices. Dynamic incentives are the missing link.
Free market economics, like in Murray Rothbard’s Power and Market, argue that subsidies will cause both effects, of increasing supply and rising input costs. But the latter effect will tend to overpower the former. Thus, prices will tend to be high and rising as time goes by.
The reasons for this are: 1.) inefficient businesses are the ones who are incentivized to seek subsidies or rent seek; 2.) these subsidies incentivize such businesses to stay inefficient or worsen; 3.) more resources are diverted into #1, leading to more #2. Rinse and repeat.
Solutions
On June 8, American Experiment published “41 concrete steps policymakers can take to make Minnesota more affordable” in the report Supplying Hope and Demanding (Real) Affordability: An agenda for Minnesota’s future. Those 41 steps included 5 concrete ones “to improve electricity affordability.” Thus, “Minnesota’s state government should:
- Repeal the mandates for 100 percent renewable energy.
- Repeal costly subsidy programs for energy conservation, small-scale renewable energy, electric vehicles and vehicle chargers, and similar wasteful programs.
- Reduce state-authorized taxes on electricity, natural gas, propane, gasoline and diesel fuel, which would provide immediate relief to consumers.
- Repeal the state’s ban on building new nuclear power plants.
- Reduce mandates and taxes on natural gas.”
Conclusion
Both Republican and Democrat candidates for state office, especially legislative and gubernatorial ones, should take heed of this pocketbook policy poll. And, as the index numbers on electricity prices, usage and bills above confirm, Minnesotans are ‘too right‘ to be alarmed about energy affordability. Only good economics, policy and politics can fix it.
Source: AZ Quotes