The nationwide release of fourth- and eighth-grade student performance in reading and math has been set for Jan. 29, 2025, as announced by the National Assessment Governing Board of the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP).
NAEP is the only nationally representative assessment of what students know and can do. The nonpartisan 26-member Governing Board established by Congress in 1988 sets policy for NAEP — what grades and subjects to assess, what the tested content should include, and what the achievement levels are.The NAEP reading and math tests are administered every two years to a sample of fourth- and eighth-grade students who represent the student population of the states and nation as a whole. It is the only objective student learning outcome measure available to compare states’ academic performance, and it can help assess how states are doing with preparing their students academically (i.e., whether state standards are rigorous enough).
The last NAEP results came out in October 2022, and every state along with Washington, D.C. and Puerto Rico saw their average scores drop from 2019 in at least one subject area and grade level (the Department of Defense schools were the exception, as they showed any improvement).
Twenty-one states saw declines on all four assessments — fourth-grade math and reading, and eighth-grade math and reading — including Minnesota. In fact, Minnesota student performance in 2022 was the lowest it has been in decades. And while NAEP assessments differ from states’ standardized testing — NAEP is considered more rigorous than most state tests — these score declines largely mirror student achievement concerns on Minnesota’s math and reading state assessments.
The 2024 NAEP results set to be released on Jan. 29, 2025 will provide key information on student achievement and whether the academic recovery needle has finally started moving in the right direction for a number of states and certain student groups. For example, nationally, fourth- and eighth-grade reading scores have been declining since 2017. While national average NAEP reading scores for higher-performing fourth graders have remained fairly constant since pre-COVID, scores for their lower-performing peers have significantly decreased, widening the average scale score gap between higher-performing and lower-performing students to over a hundred points.
Minnesota’s average eighth-grade NAEP math score and average fourth-grade NAEP reading score have also been declining since 2017 (and as of the 2022 results, Minnesota fourth-grade reading was below the national average). The average eighth-grade NAEP reading score has been in decline since 2013, as has the average fourth-grade math score.
NOTE: NAEP proficient is not the same as grade-level proficient, as measured by Minnesota’s state assessments
Stanford economist and former Governing Board member Eric Hanushek estimates NAEP score declines will lead to lifetime income loss for students and reduced economic activity for states. For Minnesota, based on average learning loss, students can expect over a seven percent loss in future income, Hanushek projects. This puts Minnesota as the 8th highest state in expected loss in lifetime income from interrupted learning. Hanushek also estimated the learning loss impact on a state’s average GDP (gross domestic product) for the remainder of the 21st century, with Minnesota’s expected GDP loss at just over 2.5 percent.
Let’s hope the upcoming release of NAEP data will provide some better news for the future of Minnesota academic achievement.