Wisconsin Governor Tony Evers announced last week that he will not seek a third term. The race for his successor is expected to be highly competitive, as it likely would have been had Evers chosen to run again. In a statement, Evers expressed confidence in his electability, saying, “There’s no question I would win if I ran.”
Not true. Evers knows that there’s no shoo-ins in a third four-year term. So does his neighbor to the west. In a separate interview with former DNC Chair Jamie Harrison, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz declared he would not run for president in 2028. This announcement was designed to shift focus to a rare third term as Minnesota’s governor. Minnesota is one of 15 states that does not limit the number of terms a governor can serve, but few governors seek a third term because incumbent advantages tend to degrade with time in a position so scrutinized.
Walz’s decision to rule out a 2028 presidential bid will undoubtedly improve his chances in the 2026 gubernatorial election. On the other hand, his absence from Minnesota while campaigning with Kamala Harris on the national ticket last year contributed to the DFL losing its majority in the Minnesota House. Despite his decision to opt out of the 2028 Presidential campaign, Republicans will connect that run to still more national ambitions, picking up where the brutal national attacks left off. Harris and Walz lost every battleground state in the 2024 election, with Walz receiving a disproportionate share of blame.
Gopher in blue
Last September, when Walz appeared at the Minnesota-at-Michigan football game wearing Michigan blue rather than Minnesota maroon, he got booed by both sides. The campaign experts told him he needed Michigan to like him, so he traded his gopher jersey for a blue windbreaker. The Wolverines rejected the gesture and Gopher fans assumed (whether he became VP or not) that the Nebraskan was done with Minnesota.
Gov Walz in Michigan for the 2024 Gopher-Wolverines match up. Photo msn.com
The intense scrutiny of his national debut surprised many Minnesotans who were unaccustomed to the negativity and blistering attacks against Walz. From the start, Harris’ VP choice was a headscratcher for Democrats who knew they needed to make up ground with men in battleground states.
“America’s dad” Tim Walz was sold as a hunt-n-fish-guy, football coach who scolded republicans for being “weird.” But he chalked up unforced errors by undermining that persona with odd fibs about his record while his exuberant stage presence belied the “Bud Grant vibe” requested by central casting. The particularly effective attacks waged against Walz nationally attracted the wall-to-wall coverage that undoubtedly will hurt his chances for a third term as governor.
Third time’s rarely the charm
Even with a presidential run off the table, a third term for Walz is far from guaranteed. Third terms are inherently rare due to the prolonged public scrutiny they invite. For historical context, in 1932, Montana Democrat John Erickson narrowly secured a third four-year term as governor, becoming the only four year term governor elected three times between 1776 and 1950. After winning, he left the position after months to run for the U.S. Senate.
Since then, things have gotten better for third-term candidates with 30 winning. However, as Governor Walz makes his decision, he will undoubtedly notice that all current four-year-term governors in the third term, are Republicans. New York Governor Cuomo, the last three-termer democrat was forced to cut his third term short, after being forced from office in a scandal.
Closer to home, Gov. John Johnson was elected in 1904, 1906 and 1908 when the Governor served a two-year term. Rudy Perpich was only the second governor to serve three terms; however, Perpich was elected only twice (he assumed the office when Wendy Anderson resigned to go to the US Senate) and served in three nonconcurrent terms. Despite this, he had become unpopular, after being branded (unfairly in my opinion) “Governor Goofy” and lost the 1990 election to Republican Arne Carlson who had entered the race only weeks before the election. The ten nonconsecutive years served by Perpich caught up with him. By comparison, Senator Amy Klobuchar has served over eighteen years without voters tiring of her. The US Senate, removed as it is from the daily spotlight is much more forgiving.
Third terms aren’t just hard for democrats. Tim Pawlenty was elected Minnesota Governor in 2002 and 2006. After withdrawing from the 2008 Presidential race to return to the private sector, Pawlenty threw his hat in the race for Minnesota Governor in 2018 only to lose to Hennepin County Commissioner Jeff Johnson in the GOP primary election.
Wisconsin’s Governor Evers felt the weight of eight years in the spotlight. Whether he came to the decision to retire by himself or not, democrat party operatives unquestionably rejoiced when he said “no thanks” to a third term.
Governor Walz plans to make his decision in the next month or so. If he runs and wins, Tim Walz will be the first Minnesota governor elected to a third four-year term.