Welcome to Capitol Watch 2025
Happy New Year and welcome to Capitol Watch 2025! Hold onto your wallets because the Minnesota Legislature returns to St. Paul on Tuesday, January 14, 2025. The Capitol Watch newsletter from Center of the American Experiment arrives every Sunday evening during session, providing an insider’s perspective on the latest legislative news and events. We promise you’ll read things here you won’t find anywhere else.
Why is session beginning so late this year?
Close followers of the Minnesota Legislature might wonder why the session is beginning on January 14 instead of the first Tuesday in January. This is the first implementation of a new law passed in 2022 allowing legislative leaders more time to get organized after an election. The extra two weeks will give brand-new leadership staff time to find the restroom before a rules debate breaks out on the first day.
What is happening in House District 40B?
A lot! Democrat Curtis Johnson received the most votes on election night in District 40B (Roseville and Shoreview). But an election contest lawsuit was filed alleging Johnson did not live in his district. The lawsuit prevailed with Ramsey County Judge Leonardo Castro issuing a strong ruling preventing Johnson from presenting his election certificate to the House. In a bizarre move, Johnson “resigned” from “his seat” in the House, prompting Gov. Walz to issue a writ of special election for January 28, 2025. It is clear to everyone except Gov. Walz and Secretary of State Steve Simon that Johnson couldn’t “resign” from a seat he never held, and the special election shouldn’t be called until there is an actual vacancy.
Breaking News: Thankfully, our friends at the Upper Midwest Law Center (UMLC) filed a petition this weekend to “quash” the writ and force Walz and Simon to follow the law, which happens to address this exact scenario in great detail. In their petition, UMLC points out the writ of special election cannot be issued until 22 days after the House convenes, making it February 5, 2025. The introduction section of the UMLC petition is a legal work of art, ending with an appeal to the court to reject Walz’s “impetuous timeline.” Perfect!
To be clear, the control of the House will not be impacted by the success or failure of this petition. As it stands, 67 Republicans will show up January 14 and present their election certificates to the House. Because of Judge Castro’s order in 40B, only 66 Democrats will present election certificates. One of the first votes in the House will be the election of a Speaker and GOP Rep. Lisa Demuth will likely win this election 67 to 66. This all-important vote will give Republicans control of the House, including committee chairs, committee assignments, the daily schedule and the calendar of bills. Once Demuth is elected, it would take a majority vote to oust her from control, an unlikely scenario even if the DFL returns to a 67-67 tie. Barring anything unusual (which is always possible), Demuth will remain Speaker for the entire two-year biennium.
If the court grants the UMLC petition and quashes the writ of special election, Walz will have to wait until February 5, 2025, to issue a new one, pushing the special election in 40B into early March. The point of the lawsuit is to hold Walz and Simon accountable to the law, a very worthy endeavor.
What about the other contested race in House District 54A?
The House District 54A race in Shakopee ended with a 14-vote margin for Democrat Brad Tabke. An election contest lawsuit was filed by the Republicans after it was revealed that 20 ballots were destroyed by election workers and not counted. A Scott County judge promised to make a decision in the case no later than the first day of the legislative session on January 14. Republicans are asking for a new election to be called because there is no way to determine how those 20 votes would impact the race. Democrats argued they know who the ballots belonged to and presented testimony (under oath) that enough of them voted for Tabke to secure his victory. Depending on the ruling, House Republicans could use their 67-66 temporary majority to refuse to seat Tabke in the House, despite what the county judge rules. According to the constitution, the House and Senate are solely in charge of seating their members. That would create another vacancy and trigger another House special election. Since the original vote was so close, Republicans could win that seat and enjoy a permanent 68-66 majority in the House. Stay tuned!
What about the Senate?
Since the Senate is in the middle of a four-year term and not up for reelection, Democrats will begin session in control of the upper body. There are, however, two outstanding issues. First, DFL Sen. Kari Dziedzik passed away December 27, creating an immediate vacancy in her Minneapolis Senate District. Gov. Tim Walz immediately issued a writ of special election for Senate District 60 with an election date of January 28, 2025. Until that seat is filled (likely by a Democrat), the Senate will be tied 33-33. Any motion by Republicans to elect a new Senate Majority Leader would likely fail 33-33, but the parity of members will make the first two weeks of session very interesting.
The second Senate issue is the January trial of DFL Sen. Nicole Mitchell for felony burglary. A settlement conference in the case failed last week, so Mitchell will be on trial in Becker County beginning January 14, the first day of session. The Becker County Courthouse is 3.5 hours away from the State Capitol, so how will Sen. Mitchell be able to participate in Senate business while attending her trial? Watch for a protracted rules fight over the practice of remote voting. Not to mention the fact that a felony conviction will force her out of the Senate, triggering yet another short-term vacancy and a special election in her Woodbury/Maplewood seat. Somebody make the popcorn!
How many votes does it take to pass a bill?
Perhaps the most important question of all. According to the constitution, it takes a “majority vote of all members” to pass a bill, which is 68 votes in the House and 34 votes in the Senate. That means compromise will be necessary, especially on the budget. A speaker can be elected with a majority of those present, but bills require a majority of the body.
This should severely limit the number of bills that pass the legislature and are sent to Gov. Walz for signature, which is a good thing! Ideas from the far left or far right will not gain enough support from each caucus to pass. One thing to watch is whether Senate Democrats, assuming they have a one-vote majority, will attempt to pass left-wing proposals and send them to the House to test the discipline of House Republicans. Having Gov. Walz ready to sign (or veto) anything that makes it to his desk is a huge advantage for the Democrats.
Bottom line
Democrats and Republicans will have to work together to pass anything, especially the budget. This will be an important test for the leadership ability of Gov. Tim Walz. In 2023 when Democrats enjoyed complete control with the trifecta (House, Senate and Governor), Walz rammed through his radical agenda and budget that spent the entire $17 billion surplus, raised taxes $10 billion and set Minnesota on a path to budget deficits. It’s hard to imagine Walz being the magnanimous leader the state needs right now to shepherd through a state budget with a closely divided legislature. But let’s wish them all good luck as we begin the new year.
More State Capitol News
MN GOP files suit over timing of 40B special election
The Republican Party of Minnesota filed suit Saturday contesting the timing of the “impetuous” special election scheduled for January 28 for House District 40B (Roseville area). >> Bill Glahn reports
Gov. Tim Walz talks “tough” on fraud
Walz held a press conference this week to announce new measures to combat the rampant, unchecked fraud being perpetrated against state welfare programs. >> Bill Glahn reports
How a 67-67 tie in the Minnesota House became a 68-66 majority A look back at the last time the Minnesota House was tied and the power moves made to tilt the balance to the DFL. >> John Phelan remembers
Government spending per person in Minnesota has risen 23% since 2019 Legislators will likely need to balance a severe budget deficit for the 2028-29 biennium. The question is, will they cut spending or hike taxes? >> Martha Njolomole analyzes
MN elections are ‘good enough for government work’
The election contest of the Shakopee-area House 54A seat (in which 20 ballots were destroyed) reveals even more incompetence. >> Bill Glahn reports
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