“We’ve raised graduation rates to the highest ever,” remarks Gov. Tim Walz in his recent reelection campaign video.
Unlike the governor’s proneness to misspeak while campaigning for vice president — which he referred to as “knucklehead” misstatements — this is true. The four-year graduation rate for Minnesota’s class of 2024 is the highest to date at 84.2 percent.
But here’s the rest of the story: The class of 2024 has the lowest math and reading proficiency results among graduation cohorts with a reported graduation rate. (The class of 2025’s math and reading proficiency is even lower, but their graduation rate won’t be released until next spring.)
High school culmination is certainly an important milestone, but if too many students are being sent out of the public school system with a piece of paper and deficient skills, the smoke and mirrors is not only detrimental to the student but also impacts their future employer and society.
It’s a tale of two stats: a fairly constant four-year graduation rate — now the highest on record — and mediocre or declining academic proficiency.
Minnesota High School Proficiency & Four-Year Graduation Rate
Some critics argue that a lack of motivation leads high school students to underperform on standardized tests like the MCAs, calling into question the reliability of these assessments. “Students don’t care about the MCAs and don’t put forth their full effort when taking these exams — the tests have no high-stakes outcomes,” according to a Chisago Lakes school board member.
It is true that performance on the MCAs carries little personal consequence for students, as it does not impact high school graduation. While Minnesota used to require a high school exit exam, it no longer does. In 2013, the DFL-controlled legislature removed the Graduation Required Assessment for Diploma (GRAD), which required specific reading and math scores in order to receive a high school diploma.
Some may argue, then, that ACT scores reflect a more reliable measure of academic readiness given the direct implications tied to performance that could motivate students to perform well. (Minnesota state law does not require students to take a college entrance exam as a high school graduation requirement, but it does “encourage” it.)
This data also, though, raises a red flag about student preparedness. Average English, math, science, and composite ACT scores among Minnesota’s class of 2024 are the lowest they have been in at least a decade. Just over a quarter (26 percent) of Minnesota exam-takers met all four college-readiness benchmarks in math, reading, English, and science, also the lowest percentage in at least a decade. Perhaps more concerning is that 35 percent met zero of the benchmarks.
Students who meet the college readiness benchmarks “have a roughly 50% chance of earning a B or better in the corresponding first-year college courses and a roughly 75% chance of earning a C or better,” according to ACT, the nonprofit organization that administers the exam.
ACT data from prior graduating classes shows that 84% of students who have met all four benchmarks graduate with postsecondary degrees within six years. Only 38% of students who meet zero benchmarks and 56% of students meeting one benchmark graduate in that time.
Minnesota students must complete all state academic standards and a minimum number of course credits in order to graduate. There is no state-mandated minimum GPA for graduation, but individual school districts and schools often set their own GPA requirements for graduating with distinctions/honors.
A September 2024 report by ACT Research found that grade inflation continues to drive high school grades up, making student GPAs less predictive of student success in college. In contrast, ACT composite scores “continue to be a reliable predictor of students’ early success in college,” according to the report.
While increasing high school graduation rates is a positive goal, it is equally important that a diploma reflects genuine academic readiness and that its value is not compromised in the pursuit of these higher numbers. A false sense of achievement not only undermines the credibility of the high school credential but also places unfair burdens on students who believe they are prepared only to find out too late that they aren’t, putting at risk their future success in college, the workforce, or daily life.