The U.S. Energy Information Administration warned last month that U.S. commercial electricity consumption will reach record highs in the next two years, rising by 3% in 2025 and 5% in 2026. Without affordable, reliable energy sources like natural gas, coal, and nuclear, the U.S. risks slowing down AI innovation and causing blackouts that hurt electricity consumers everywhere.
Grid monitors are already sounding the alarm about rising demand and accelerating retirements of baseload, 24/7 power. The North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) expects that much of the Midwest will be at “elevated” risk of blackouts under extreme peak conditions this summer, in part because of “the increasing share that solar and wind resources have in meeting demand.” Over the next ten years, NERC expects industrial loads like data centers to fuel “rapid demand growth” that contributes to a “high” risk of blackouts under normal peak conditions in the Midwest.
Over the next decade, the U.S. will add more than 400 gigawatts of capacity, but only 60 gigawatts from sources that can quickly ramp up their power output. A single query to ChatGPT requires 2.9 watt-hours of electricity, which may not sound like much, but across hundreds of millions of users each day, it adds up. And that electricity needs to be available at any hour of the day — not just when the wind is blowing and the sun is shining.
No one truly knows how much electricity AI data centers will need, but the Department of Energy expects data center electricity demand to double or triple by 2028, consuming between 6.7% and 12% of total U.S. electricity by 2028. One estimate suggests that grid demand could increase by almost 16% by 2029 and another estimate projects an increase of 20% by 2030.
Data centers can’t afford to shut down when weather-dependent wind turbines and solar panels fail to provide enough electricity, so technology giants are scrambling to secure reliable sources of energy on their own. Microsoft has agreed to help reopen the Three Mile Island Unit 1 in Pennsylvania to power data centers, and that may be done as early as 2027, a year earlier than expected. Meta is expanding a nuclear plant in Illinois and announced a deal to support a 150 megawatt geothermal energy plant in New Mexico. Google is deploying 500 MW of advanced reactors by 2035.
China has no compunctions about fueling its side of the AI race with hydrocarbon sources. In 2024, China began constructing an estimated 94.5 GW of coal-fired capacity — the highest since 2015. Beijing also leans into nuclear power: every Chinese nuclear reactor that has entered service since 2010 has been built in less than seven years.
China is rapidly advancing its AI technology, with the open-source DeepSeek model, released in early 2025, reportedly taking only two months and $6 million in chips to train, though the veracity of those claims is disputed. Two-thirds of voters in a May poll are “very” or “somewhat” worried about China becoming a global AI leader. To remain competitive, the U.S. should remove unnecessary permitting delays to speed the addition of new energy sources to the grid.
Despite strong commitments from tech giants to use renewables, wind and solar generation cannot meet data centers’ 24/7, baseload demands. Nuclear projects may not be built in time to fuel the AI boom given long delays and cost overruns, which is thanks largely to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s policies and incentives. Natural gas, which has lower carbon dioxide emissions than coal-fired generation, is expected to supply 60% of the power demand growth from AI.
ChatGPT is now estimated to be the fifth-most visited website in the world, but Gen Z’s technology habit simply can’t be met without natural gas, coal, and nuclear power. 53% of Gen Z adults surveyed in 2021 preferred the U.S. to “use a mix of fossil fuels and renewables,” and 64% of Americans overall agreed. More nuclear generation is also popular among young people, with about 80% of first-time D.C.-area voters in 2024 supporting it.
Still, stopping data centers from entering the grid isn’t the answer. The role of the grid is “not to dictate which industries deserve energy, but to efficiently supply power based on market demand.” Unfortunately, states like Minnesota decided in this legislative session to chase away investment with onerous restrictions on electricity use, water use, and generation sources and require them to pay for conservation pet projects. One state representative told the Star Tribune that Amazon had been “eyeing several projects in Minnesota” but officially withdrew after the legislation passed.
Meeting AI’s power needs means using natural gas and coal while building toward nuclear capacity. Without constructing more affordable, reliable sources of energy, the U.S. risks ceding its AI edge to hostile nations, allowing devastating blackouts, and compromising the increasingly digital lifestyle that Americans have embraced.
Sarah Montalbano is an energy policy fellow at Center of the American Experiment.
This piece was originally published by RealClearEnergy on July 10, 2025.